Good Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreThe Jekyll and Hyde that is Fed Chair J Powell made another appearance yesterday, but instead of the ultra-hawisk Powell from the Jackson Hole Wyoming speech of last August (which crashed the markets) we got the sweetheart J Powell that, without question IMO, wanted to see stocks and bonds rise further still.
Read MoreWith 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read MoreOver the last 3 trading sessions the Dow Jones has lost close to 1300 points, giving up its gains to date for 2023. If our read is right on the markets for this year, this is about the time when we should begin to see reversal action higher. Headed into last Friday the rubber band simply stretched too far…we hit extreme overbought…as the move higher from the 10/13/22 capitulation lows took the markets to extended readings.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. From the 10/13/22 capitulation lows we’ve been witness to a textbook “new bull market”. It’s only just the beginning of a new bull market…one that should last years…just know that we have hit heavily overbought readings on the VRA Investing System (more on this later):
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreJ Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The markets look to be setting up for a catapult move higher into year end. The technicals are forming around the 200 dma (after a near parabolic move higher post the 10/13 capitulation into heavily overbought readings), in what looks to me to be a classic consolidation pattern in advance of both the santa claus rally and January effect bullish time frames.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. If you were as confused as 99% of Wall Street and the English speaking people of the world were by Fed Chair J Powells presser yesterday, where he reverted to previous form and crushed the stock market, I encourage you to listen to Tylers podcast from yesterday afternoon:
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. As we’ve covered over the last year, the current bear market…the 3rd in 4 years…actually started in February 2021. That’s when groups such as SPACs, meme stocks, China, biotechnology, etc hit a top and started to decline.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.
Read MoreThe short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. After Wednesday’s 2–3% ramp higher (S&P 500, Nasdaq, R2K) it sure felt like the lows were in as we had a 90% up-volume day in NYSE with 7:1 advance/decline and as S&P 500 put in an outside day (technical buy signal).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. I’ll be on with our great friend Wayne Allyn Root tonight on the Wayne Root Show at 8:30 PM EST. Listen in on USARadio.com or via Wayne’s site; RootForAmerica.com. We’ll be talking about this (bear) market and the soon to be extreme oversold conditions…
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all, Q2 GDP — Recession in the US Second quarter GDP just came in at a negative .9%, meaning back to back negative quarters and the technical definition of a recession. First, I owe Wayne Root a Las Vegas dinner.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Another big market comeback yesterday, featuring a Dow Jones that rallied from -350 to close +162, led once again by Nasdaq (+1.4%) and Semis (1.7%) and our new repeating pattern of MUCH better internals. This bear market rally looks and feels like it has the potential to be the first big one that we’ve had to date.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Tuesdays afternoon comeback was impressive (coming off of a near no-bid open…real fear) led by Nasdaq’s 400 point swing higher, and we got a glimpse of that yesterday as the Dow went from -150 to +220 in less than an hour, marking back-to-back afternoon reversals higher.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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