Good Friday morning all. VRA Quick hitters;
1) Weakness in European shares today as Deutsche Bank is down 15%, taking the European bank index down 5% on the day.
Read MoreAnother volatile day of trading yesterday influenced by fears of global bank runs. Of note, in the last two trading sessions the smart money hour was met with strong buying pressure (with tech leading the way).
Read MoreAs our markets complete their overbought “pause”, we believe seasonality is playing a major role as the second half of February is historically weak. It’s actually one of the worst two weeks periods of the year.
But soon, our overbought sell-off will be behind us. Based on VRA System readings, by weeks end we should be hitting oversold levels that typically mark reversals higher, especially near the birth of new bull markets.
Good Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreThe Jekyll and Hyde that is Fed Chair J Powell made another appearance yesterday, but instead of the ultra-hawisk Powell from the Jackson Hole Wyoming speech of last August (which crashed the markets) we got the sweetheart J Powell that, without question IMO, wanted to see stocks and bonds rise further still.
Read MoreWith 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read MoreOver the last 3 trading sessions the Dow Jones has lost close to 1300 points, giving up its gains to date for 2023. If our read is right on the markets for this year, this is about the time when we should begin to see reversal action higher. Headed into last Friday the rubber band simply stretched too far…we hit extreme overbought…as the move higher from the 10/13/22 capitulation lows took the markets to extended readings.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. From the 10/13/22 capitulation lows we’ve been witness to a textbook “new bull market”. It’s only just the beginning of a new bull market…one that should last years…just know that we have hit heavily overbought readings on the VRA Investing System (more on this later):
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Following last Friday's jobs report the markets moved sharply higher, only to give up all of its gains and then close lower by 1% across the board on concerns that Russia would cut off European gas supplies (which happened).
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Tuesdays afternoon comeback was impressive (coming off of a near no-bid open…real fear) led by Nasdaq’s 400 point swing higher, and we got a glimpse of that yesterday as the Dow went from -150 to +220 in less than an hour, marking back-to-back afternoon reversals higher.
Read MoreGood Friday afternoon all. Before we get to the markets, which has both a crash scenario along with some of their most oversold levels we’ve ever seen, we’re beginning this morning with “Team Lockstep”. Here’s todays VRA VidCast covering this topic:
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Yesterdays action at the open was solid, only to be met by a warning from JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon that the US economy was potentially facing a “hurricane” going forward. When Dimon speaks investors listen and the big open turned into big losses by midday.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Don’t Forget: The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday. Two big developments: last night the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at just 15.8% bulls, one of the 5–6 lowest readings on record. I’ve voted in this survey since the late 1980’s and yes, I voted bearish for this weeks survey.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. We just put out a VRA Alert to our member’s that we wanted to share here. Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat? To understand why gold/silver may double over the next 3–5 yrs, with the miners jumping 300% to 500% in price,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all.
While everyone was panicking yesterday morning, we were buyers. We never forget the people in our lives that made the biggest impressions. Professionally, that’s my first mentor Ted Parsons (RIP Ted). Ted’s mentor worked on Wall Street during the crash….
Read MoreEven as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. The much awaited CPI data is out and its a hot number, with inflation hitting a 40 year high as the CPI posts a 7.5% annual gain in January. Honestly, don’t most of us look at this number and say “what do you mean it only rose 7.5% year over year…based on what I’m paying for stuff it feels much more….
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2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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