Good Friday morning all. What a week. The Fed admits they screwed up and the DJ rallies 1000 points for the week. The 10%+ correction that should never have happened. My mentors (RIP Ted Parsons and Michael Metz) taught me so much about the psychology of investing. The emotions of money…wow.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Some quick hitters to start the day. Third quarter earnings have absolutely killed it….regardless of how the markets have responded to the results. Yes, we want to watch the “reaction” to the news rather than the news itself, but until we see a semblance of proof that the US economy is decelerating,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Yesterdays FED minutes spooked the markets…just a bit…as they confirmed their hawkish interest rate policy into year end of into ’19. Here’s the bottom line; the FED will hike again in December. Thats a certainty, making it 9 straight rate hikes.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all, The markets lows are in place, for all of the reasons we’ve been covering here. The combination of incredibly strong US economic conditions, surging corporate earnings and seasonality investment factors tell us that we must be in this market.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Once the break through DJ 24,768 occurred, SkyNet like AI technical selling pressure kicked in. Know this; the selling pressure from the final 30 minutes was purely algo related. This is a structural problem in the markets thats been with us for some time…90% of all trades…
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Hitting the most important bases this morning…clear signs that the velocity of the sell-off of the last 2 days (Dow Jones 1300 point loss) was algo driven with capitulation everywhere we look. This is not a crash. If it were, gold would be catching a serious bid, debt markets would be showing signs of panic…
Read MoreWe see no structurally negative issues in this market. We see a market that’s building energy, with powerful fund flows into US equities that continue to overwhelm would be sellers. The most pressing negative could be share buybacks, which are halted for companies soon to announce Q3 earnings (4–6 week blackout period).
Read MoreVRA Bottom Line: The US (Trump) invited China back for new round of negotiations. The invite from Trump allows China to save face, as they ultimately bend to Trumps will. Make no mistake…this is exactly what’s happening here. Chinas markets/economy have been hit HARD,
Read MoreToday marks 17 years since 9/11/01. Like most, I was in shock in the weeks/months that followed the attacks. Then I saw this picture, with an article signed by several hundred scientists that (engineers, architects) that raised serious doubts as to the official story…
Read MoreNo doubt, many of you played chess growing up. Many of the worlds best investors do. Chess and Risk, those were our games of choice. If you’ve never played a really good chess player, it’s most similar to playing a good poker player…you feel like they’re renting space in your head.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. This week’s surge higher in US stock prices was credited to Trumps trade deal with Mexico and as details begin to emerge, we’re learning just how serious Trump has been about “actual free trade” all along. We’ve covered this here often;…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Bit of a pause in US markets yesterday, if you could even call it a pause. Once new all time highs are hit, some consolidation usually takes place. But I don’t expect this pause will last long.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Following a big (bullish) day higher yesterday…with solid market internals… here are my thoughts this morning. Buy the dip is evolving into “aggressively buy the dip” for US stocks. This bodes well for our markets as we finish the year out. Again, with just 36% bulls on AAII Sentiment Survey,
Read MoreGood Friday morning all, A heads up on the broad market and VRA System readings. Weakening internals could be pointing to short term market weakness. In mid-term years, August can be a shaky month, seasonally speaking.
Read MoreGDP came in at 4.1%, just a hair below consensus estimates but still the best quarterly GDP growth since 2014. Two things stand out as I read the report quickly; 1) exports added 1.06% to GDP, the highest amount since 2013 and nonresidential business investment grew by a big 7.3%, which should bode well for Q3 GDP.
Read MoreSecond quarter earnings are beating estimates, across the board. Roughly 9% of S&P 500 co’s have reported and something like 80% have topped analyst estimates. While this is not unusual, the following is; fewer than 5% of co’s that have reported have tamped down Q3 earnings estimates.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Over the years, we’ve seen this movie before. We’ve seen it many times. Remember the global market hysteria surrounding Greece potentially leaving the EU, where the Euro and European banks would crash, taking the worlds economies with it.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Hope everyone had a a great July 4th holiday! Employment data for June was just released, showing the US economy and jobs market continues to grow at an expanding pace. 213,000 jobs were created, beating the estimates of 195,000. In addition, April and May were revised higher by 37,000 jobs.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Just a week ago we began warning about the VRA Investing System’s extreme overbought levels in our market leaders, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. What followed was an almost immediate overbought sell-off that (as of yesterday) took the Nasdaq back to its 50 day…
Read MoreYesterday we highlighted the fact that the Russell 2000 has reached an overbought level that has occurred just twice in the last 2 years. Right on cue, the R2K sold off sharply, down 1.18%, leading the rest of the market lower (along with its co-leader, the Nasdaq).
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2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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